Potential Shift in Political Landscape Across the Amazon
By the year 2027, six out of the nine Amazonian countries may find themselves under the governance of right-wing or far-right administrations. Experts consulted for this report warn that such a scenario would pose new threats to the South American biome. Beyond Brazil’s borders, neighbouring nations like Peru, Colombia, Bolivia, and Ecuador have already elected presidents who overtly prioritise agribusiness and mining interests over environmental and conservation agendas.
Brazil could potentially join this trend, with the outcome of its presidential elections on Sunday, 4th October, holding significant implications. The country is home to over 60% of the Amazon rainforest, making the stakes particularly high. Current polls indicate an uncertain presidential race, where the incumbent President Lula faces off against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The winner, whether in the first or second round, will take office on 1st January next year.
Flávio, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro (who served from 2019 to 2022), is contesting the election in place of his father, who has been declared ineligible and is currently imprisoned for attempting a coup in the context of the 2022 elections. Jair Bolsonaro’s administration was notorious for dismantling environmental regulations, leading to a significant rise in deforestation rates.
Experts assert that the Brazilian elections will be pivotal for the Amazon and other biomes within the country, especially considering Flávio Bolsonaro’s apparent willingness to revive the anti-environmental policies characteristic of his father’s government.
The Venezuelan Factor
Venezuela also plays a vital role in this political equation. The Venezuelan government has been under significant economic and political intervention from the United States for several months. The influence of former President Donald Trump has pressured Caracas to expand its oil agenda and enter into new mining agreements, raising further environmental concerns.
Collectively, Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia, and Venezuela account for approximately 95% of the Amazon rainforest. Márcio Astrini, Executive Secretary of the Climate Observatory in Brazil, highlights the difficulties faced under any government that exhibits a commitment to combating deforestation. “When there are governments on the opposite side, believing that chainsaws are justified and conservation laws are not, the situation becomes nearly impossible,” he stated.
Between 2025 and 2026, Bolivia, Peru, and Colombia elected leaders who campaigned against environmental protection and in favour of militarisation, mining, and the expansion of agribusiness. In Ecuador, the re-elected President Daniel Noboa in 2025 has likewise embraced ultra-conservative stances on public security, reopening the country to mining while undermining environmental institutions.
Implications for Diplomacy and Regional Cooperation
Given this context, analysts suggest that the results of the Brazilian elections could either bring about a “conservative alliance” at the helm of the Amazon starting next year or compel Lula da Silva to govern in a climate of diplomatic isolation during a potential fourth term.
Political changes may also necessitate a reevaluation of cooperation in border areas. Discussions regarding a joint strategy to protect the rainforest and its communities risk being overshadowed by a “zero tolerance” agenda against organised crime, the repercussions of which are particularly felt in these regions.
If conservation ceases to be a regional priority, the future of intergovernmental entities focused on sustainable development and indigenous rights, such as the Organisation of the Amazon Cooperation Treaty (OTCA), could also be jeopardised. Moreover, trans-Amazonian infrastructure projects, which have faced significant scrutiny over their potential environmental impacts, may gain renewed momentum.
Shifting Policies in Bolivia and Beyond
The challenge for the Amazon remains formidable, as Astrini notes. “The margin of influence for a Brazilian government that cares about the environment is already limited. One can count on complementary actions from neighbouring countries, as long as they are willing. However, once a new government denies climate change, the ability of any government to influence conservation efforts is significantly diminished.”
Data from the Andean Amazon Monitoring Programme (Maap) indicates that deforestation across the Amazon has fluctuated in recent years. In 2024, wildfires reached a record impact, devastating approximately 2.8 million hectares amid extreme drought conditions associated with El Niño. Total deforestation rose by 34%. A partial recovery occurred in 2025, with a reduction in wildfire-affected areas and deforestation reaching its lowest level in a decade. Currently, approximately 13% of the biome has been deforested, according to Maap.
The Contrast in Environmental Policies
In 2023, as Lula ascended the ramp of the Planalto Palace in Brasília, he was joined by representatives of civil society, including indigenous leader Raoni Metuktire. This act was a direct response to Jair Bolsonaro, who had refused to hand over the presidential sash, and to the environmental crisis his administration left behind. Following the reactivation of environmental policies under Lula’s administration, Brazilian Amazon deforestation rates fell to their lowest level in ten years.
In stark contrast, Bolivia has taken a different path. The victory of President Rodrigo Paz in 2025, campaigning under the slogan “capitalism for all,” marked the end of nearly two decades of left-wing governance led by the previously dominant Movement for Socialism (MAS) and heralded changes in environmental policy.
Analysts note that the concrete results of MAS governments regarding deforestation, oil exploitation, and mining in the Amazon remain ambiguous and continue to be debated. Nonetheless, from the outset, Paz’s government made it clear that addressing these issues would not be among its priorities, diverging significantly from the previous two decades of MAS leadership.
Legislative Changes and Indigenous Rights
Paz focused his agenda on economic and fiscal matters, promoting initiatives aimed at “reducing the state” and “streamlining bureaucracy.” In August 2026, he abolished Bolivia’s Ministry of Environment, reducing it to a subordinate vice-ministry under the Ministry of Productive Development, Rural Affairs, and Water.
Additionally, Paz expedited a series of measures deemed regressive for environmental standards by decree. He also relaxed controls on various projects to attract foreign direct investment and private capital to the energy and mining sectors. Early decisions by the government prompted Amazonian indigenous groups to raise concerns about an impending mining “boom.”
Valentina Figuera Martínez, campaigns coordinator for gender justice and forests at the Global Forest Coalition, expressed her worries regarding the legal changes in Bolivia, particularly when viewed in a regional context. “In Bolivia, the Mining Law mandates prior, free, and informed consultations for environmental studies and their approval by the Plurinational Legislative Assembly. However, administrative shortcuts have been created to allow mining projects to operate without legislative approval, violating territorial rights,” she stated.
Broader Impacts Across the Region
Martínez identifies parallels among Amazonian countries, citing Brazil, where Congress has weakened environmental oversight and legislation, and Venezuela, which has advanced opaque oil agreements with the United States. She contends that global responses continue to prioritise fossil fuel exploitation over a just climate transition. “It represents the most significant erosion of rights and sovereignty in recent years,” she asserted.
In Ecuador, environmental policies have also shifted since 2023 under Noboa’s conservative agenda. The promotion of mining and fossil fuel projects in the Amazon has sparked resistance from indigenous groups and academics. Concurrently, investigations by the organisation Amazon Underworld have indicated that Noboa’s militaristic approach to crime fuels violence linked to illegal gold extraction and drug trafficking.
The government in Quito has also sparked debate by merging the Ministry of Environment with the Ministry of Energy and Mines. It has approved new laws to bolster the mining sector—by modifying the requirements for obtaining environmental licenses—and promoted plans for oil and gas expansion worth over $45 billion. These measures have drawn criticism from Ecuadorian indigenous groups.
Concerns Over Military Approaches in Andean Nations
“The wave of far-right and right-wing governments in Latin America and the Caribbean is contributing to the accelerated extinction of life on the planet through climate denialism, rights violations, and the dismantling of environmental regulations,” Martínez noted.
“What is the purpose of environmental regulations? They were ostensibly created to preserve a minimal legal framework for protection and to guarantee rights, despite implementation failures, legal gaps, and a lack of resources. What exists is either violated or mechanisms are sought to delay implementation or undermine established rights,” she emphasised.
In 2026, just months before the Brazilian elections, two ultraconservative platforms emerged—by narrow margins—in neighbouring Amazonian countries. In July, Keiko Fujimori, daughter of the late former President Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000), assumed the presidency in Peru. The following month, in Colombia, far-right lawyer and Trump supporter Abelardo de la Espriella received the presidential sash for the first time.
In her inaugural address, Fujimori avoided addressing the more delicate issues surrounding the Peruvian Amazon, such as deforestation and violence against environmental defenders. However, she highlighted the escalating crisis of illegal mining in Peru as a problem that must be combated with military power. The consequences include health damages to indigenous peoples and river contamination with heavy metals, as revealed by a September investigation by