Collaboration for Climate Resilience
The Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) recently partnered with the Science Museum Group (SMG) to evaluate its vulnerability to climate-related risks and opportunities. This collaboration aimed to provide strategic recommendations that would bolster resilience and mitigate potential adverse impacts stemming from climate change.
Understanding the Science Museum Group
The Science Museum Group oversees some of the United Kingdom’s most frequented cultural institutions, including the renowned Science Museum and the National Railway Museum. These venues house invaluable collections and welcome millions of visitors annually, making their operational continuity essential.
In line with other public entities, the SMG is mandated to disclose how climate change may influence its financial health and operational capabilities. This obligation arises from the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD), a global initiative that assists organisations in identifying, assessing, and preparing for climate-related challenges. To support compliance, HM Treasury has issued guidelines aimed at aiding public bodies in fulfilling this requirement.
Our Approach to Assessment
The GAD provided extensive support to the SMG through various interconnected phases. Initially, it conducted a gap analysis, marking the first formal effort by the SMG to engage with the strategy component of the TCFD framework. This element focuses on how organisations identify and address climate-related risks and opportunities within their business models and planning processes.
Although this was a new requirement, the SMG had previously explored the actual and potential consequences of climate risks. The GAD team examined existing work to determine compliance with disclosure standards and identify areas needing further enhancement. This analysis laid the groundwork for a structured assessment, helping the SMG to establish its current position and outline subsequent steps for improvement.
Identifying Risks and Opportunities
Following the initial evaluation, GAD facilitated collaborative workshops involving a diverse array of SMG stakeholders. These sessions aimed to generate and refine a detailed register of climate-related risks and opportunities. We mapped pathways through which both physical climate hazards—such as flooding and extreme heat—and transition risks—including regulatory changes and the financial implications of achieving net-zero emissions—could directly and indirectly impact the SMG’s financial and operational landscape.
Utilising surveys from key stakeholders and the SMG’s existing risk matrix, we prioritised these climate-related risks, ensuring alignment with the broader risk management framework employed across the organisation.
Developing Tailored Climate Scenarios
In a further step, GAD crafted four bespoke climate scenarios uniquely tailored to the SMG’s mission, strategic objectives, estate, and operational framework. These scenarios were developed to translate global reference scenarios into narratives that resonate specifically with the SMG. Input from interactive workshops, facilitated by GAD, ensured that these scenarios were meaningful and relevant to the organisation.
Subsequent qualitative and quantitative analyses were performed on the prioritised physical and transition risks within the context of these tailored scenarios. We evaluated the likelihood and financial impact of each risk across three distinct timeframes and two different scenarios, illustrating how these risks might evolve under varying climate futures.
Delivering Value and Recommendations
The comprehensive project has equipped the SMG with a clearly prioritised outline of climate-related risks and opportunities, assessed in a consistent manner. The four bespoke climate scenarios are firmly rooted in the SMG’s specific context, rather than relying on generic national or international data. This contextualisation allows for seamless integration into the existing organisation-wide risk management processes, facilitating ongoing strategic and financial planning as well as informed decision-making.
The SMG now possesses a clear set of actionable recommendations aimed at reducing climate-related risks and enhancing analytical capabilities. This initiative strengthens the organisation’s foundation for TCFD-aligned reporting, positioning it as a leader in climate action within the cultural sector.
Feedback from the Science Museum Group
David Jones, Deputy Finance Director of the Science Museum Group, remarked on the significant support provided by the GAD: “The Government Actuary’s Department has aided our efforts to incorporate climate impacts, mitigation, and adaptation into our strategic framework. Their thorough understanding of our operations, gained through surveys and workshops, has allowed us to articulate the risks we face and their potential impacts effectively. The development of four climate scenarios and their implications for our operations have greatly enhanced our engagement with internal stakeholders. We are thankful for the GAD team’s expertise and guidance.”
Engage with Our Expertise
The Climate and Disaster Risk team at GAD merges knowledge in climate science, risk management, and financial analysis to assist public bodies in transitioning from awareness to action regarding climate-related risks. If you wish to explore how we can support your organisation, please reach out to us at Climate.Change@gad.gov.uk.