Humanity’s Existential Threats: A Stark Warning
According to a recent report, humanity faces the alarming possibility of extinction within the next 75 years due to 17 significant risks, with the malicious use of artificial intelligence (AI) and the threat of nuclear conflict at the forefront. This cautionary message comes from the Commission on Global Health Threats for the 21st Century, which also identifies other existential dangers, including antibiotic resistance, climate change, childhood malnutrition, and naturally occurring pandemics.
Experts assert that while such a catastrophic scenario can be averted, it necessitates urgent action from governments and political leaders. They must address these pressing issues through coordinated efforts and global collaboration.
The findings stem from an analysis using a model that estimated the potential loss of healthy life years due to diseases, disabilities, or premature deaths linked to each risk if current trends continue. This metric, known as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), is projected for the period between 2025 and 2100, supported by the forecasting infrastructure of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and the Global Burden of Disease study.
A Comprehensive Analysis of Risks
The study encompassed projections across 204 countries and territories, analysing variables such as age groups, gender, and specific causes. The models accounted for mortality and disability risk factors, demographic changes, socio-economic conditions, and disease trends. To determine possible trajectories, researchers examined historical experiences and the observed rates of increase or decrease of each threat.
Based on these results, the Commission, comprising 35 experts from various fields, categorised risks into a four-tier pyramid: potential extinction threats, phenomena capable of causing catastrophic health impacts, significant disease causes, and lesser individual threats. The authors contend that the first two tiers represent genuine risks to humanity.
In the primary category, the malicious use of AI—including its application in developing biological weapons—and a nuclear conflict that could trigger worldwide famine are highlighted. The Commission clarifies that, to date, there are no robust statistical models to accurately calculate the likelihood of these scenarios. Consequently, their warning is based on structured consultations with experts and the judgment of super forecasters. Nonetheless, they deem it inadequate to exclude such risks from the analysis due to their potentially far-reaching consequences.
Potential Global Health Catastrophes
The authors emphasise that while the probability of these two risks materialising remains low, “the magnitude of damage, should it occur, would result in an apocalypse for humanity.” Additionally, 15 global health threats are identified in the second category, each potentially contributing over 1 billion DALYs by 2100 under the baseline scenario. To put this into perspective, this figure would be equivalent to double the health burden attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. This group encompasses persistent diseases, environmental phenomena, and socio-economic and conflict-related issues, including:
- Air pollution
- Antimicrobial resistance
- Child malnutrition
- Climate change
- Collapse of health development assistance
- Conventional conflicts
- High alcohol consumption
- Hypertension
- Income inequality
- Low educational attainment
- Naturally occurring pandemics
- Obesity
- Poor mental health
- Smoking
- Unhealthy ageing
The Commission warns that these 17 risks interact with one another, exacerbating their potentially harmful effects on health and humanity’s survival. The experts assert that “the unpleasant reality is that the threats we face are multiple, complex, and difficult,” while governmental measures remain inadequate to mitigate the dangers.
The Need for Global Coordination
Experts highlight that countries’ capacity for prevention and response is hampered by a short-term and local approach. Rather than viewing dangers as interconnected phenomena with long-term global implications, governments often prioritise addressing issues that only currently affect their populations.
This neglect is particularly evident in the ongoing climate crisis. The report indicates that global warming can undermine health and quality of life through various channels, while also exacerbating other threats, such as exposure to extreme heat, deteriorating air quality, stunted child growth, and the aftermath of tropical cyclones and floods.
However, various studies warn that global efforts to combat climate change are insufficient. Projections suggest the planet will surpass the 1.5 °C threshold relative to pre-industrial levels within the next decade. The Commission’s report maintains that reversing this trend and limiting global warming to 1.8 °C could avert the cumulative loss of 1,890 million healthy life years by 2100.
Longer Lives with Increased Health Challenges
The document also indicates that global life expectancy is set to rise in the coming years, but healthy life expectancy will increase at a slower pace. Between 2025 and 2100, it predicts an overall life expectancy increase of 8.65 years, compared to just 5.69 years in healthy life expectancy. This implies that, on average, individuals will live longer, yet spend a greater proportion of their lives grappling with chronic illnesses or disabilities.
In this context, specialists forecast that non-communicable diseases, such as diabetes, heart disease, pulmonary conditions, and strokes, will dominate the global disease burden for the remainder of the century. Furthermore, other ailments, including musculoskeletal and mental disorders, hearing and vision loss, traffic injuries, and falls, are also expected to contribute significantly. However, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions will remain critically important in lower-income regions, particularly due to persistent challenges such as neonatal disorders, malaria, pneumonia, and tuberculosis.
Strategies for Mitigating Existential Risks
The report underscores that merely identifying and quantifying risks is insufficient for their reduction or mitigation. The Commission advocates for bolstering trust in science and institutions, establishing a global governance framework capable of coordinating actions that no single country can undertake alone, and ensuring sustainable funding for healthcare systems.
It also emphasises the need for policies aimed at reducing inequality, building resilient food systems, developing national capacities to manage demographic changes, respecting human rights, and ensuring equitable universal healthcare coverage.
Among its recommendations is the establishment of a Global Health Threats Monitor for the 21st Century. This initiative would periodically update estimates, incorporate new scientific evidence, and identify emerging risks. The report suggests it should operate on an annual cycle under the oversight of an independent advisory committee that convenes biannually.
Results should be presented at forums such as the G20, G7, the World Health Assembly, and the United Nations to keep these threats on the political agenda and facilitate evidence-based budgetary decision-making.
Ibrahim Abubakar, a Commission member and Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at University College London (UCL), remarked that the aim of the report is not to incite panic among the public. “We don’t start from the position of ‘look, we want to scare you: we have X threats to humanity.’ We begin from the premise that if you are a policymaker today, whether at the global multilateral level or national level, these are the potential threats you may face, and this is the magnitude with which, if you act, you can make a difference,” he concluded.