Overview of Risk Levels for UK Interests
In July, the UK faced a consistent level of risk regarding its interests in space, characterised by an increase in uncontrolled re-entries, fragmentation events, and heightened space weather activity. Notably, there was a decline in the number of collision alerts compared to the previous month of June. Throughout this period, all warning and protection services provided by the National Space Operations Centre (NSpOC) remained operational.
Analysis of Re-Entry Incidents
The month of July witnessed a 17% rise in the number of objects re-entering the Earth’s atmosphere, as monitored by the NSpOC, in comparison to June. A total of 62 objects re-entered during this time, of which 59 were satellites, two were rocket bodies, and one was identified as likely debris. The monthly statistics for re-entries are as follows: August recorded 34, September had 39, October saw 54, while November and December noted 43 and 52 respectively. The subsequent months of January through July displayed figures of 50, 66, 72, 68, 48, 53, and finally 62.
Collision Avoidance Data
The risk of collisions for UK-licensed satellites decreased by 16% in July compared to June, falling below the 12-month rolling average. The monthly collision risk figures were as follows: August reported 971, September registered 1,537, October recorded 2,402, and November tallied 2,472. December’s numbers reached 2,643, January showed 2,608, February had 2,117, March noted 1,847, while April, May, June, and July reported 1,194, 1,285, 1,436, and 1,209 respectively.
Trends in Registered Space Objects
July saw an increase in the in-orbit population, with 322 new objects added to the US Satellite Catalogue. The figures for the total number of Registered Space Objects (RSOs) are as follows: August had 31,389, September saw 31,677, October recorded 31,968, November noted 32,351, and December had 32,739. The new year began with 32,965 in January, followed by 33,205 in February, 33,593 in March, and 33,873 in April. May reached 34,138, June noted 34,429, and July concluded with 34,751. It is worth mentioning that the RSO figures may experience minor adjustments as tracking methods improve over time.
Fragmentation Events and Space Weather Activity
In July, two incidents of fragmentation occurred, involving payloads in both Lower Earth and Graveyard orbits. Ongoing assessments aim to determine the extent of debris released into orbit as a result of these events. Furthermore, space weather activity was notably higher in July, marked by an increase in solar flares and geomagnetic storms compared to the previous month.
Role of the National Space Operations Centre
The National Space Operations Centre plays a crucial role in integrating and coordinating the UK’s civil and military capabilities in space domain awareness. This effort is vital for managing operations, fostering prosperity, and safeguarding UK interests both in space and on Earth against various space-related threats, risks, and hazards.