Shifting Perspectives on Parenthood in Mexico
At 32, Alfonso feels financially secure, yet he harbours reservations about fatherhood. While monetary concerns are significant, he grapples with the broader implications of becoming a parent. “I don’t want to romanticise the idea of having a child without being fully prepared—not just financially, but in various aspects of fatherhood,” he expresses during an interview.
Similarly, 27-year-old Karen Hernández has known since she was 19 that motherhood is not for her. She chooses to focus on self-development and nurturing her relationships. Karen critiques the persistent gendered expectations surrounding childcare, especially amidst ongoing issues like wage disparity and gender-based violence. “The more I grow, the more I solidify my decision,” she remarks.
While Alfonso and Karen come from different places, their choices reflect a significant societal shift that is evident in national statistics. The 2025 Intercensal Survey from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) indicates a decline in Mexico’s total fertility rate, dropping from 1.9 children per woman in 2019 to 1.2 in 2024. This figure represents the average number of children a woman would have in her reproductive lifetime.
Óscar Vela, an economics professor at Tecnológico de Monterrey, notes that what distinguishes Mexico is the rapid pace of this decline. “What stands out about the Mexican case, and many Latin American countries, is the speed at which the total fertility rate has fallen,” he explains. In contrast, similar transformations in other nations have taken one to two decades to achieve.
Understanding the Decline in Birth Rates
To grasp the reasons behind Mexico’s swift drop in fertility, one must consider multiple factors. Experts from various fields, including economics and demography, are examining elements such as housing costs, educational opportunities, employment conditions, relationship dynamics, and evolving cultural perceptions of motherhood and fatherhood.
“The question facing us is complex, and honestly, there isn’t a single solution or consensus among researchers,” Vela states. “Instead, there are several potential contributing factors, each holding different significance depending on the specific country.”
The 2025 State of World Population report from the United Nations Population Fund highlights that 21% of respondents in Mexico are unable to achieve their desired number of children, predominantly due to economic challenges. Other issues include job insecurity, housing costs, health problems, global uncertainties, and the struggle to find suitable partners.
Currently, researchers are investigating whether social media influences how individuals meet, form relationships, and sustain connections. “There’s a hypothesis that this mode of social interaction might lead people to postpone their decision to have one or more children,” Vela explains, although further research is needed to clarify the extent of this influence.
The Impact of Education on Family Size
Education emerges as a pivotal factor in the fertility discussion. INEGI data reveals a correlation between educational attainment and the number of children. In 2025, women without formal education had an average of 4.9 children, while those with upper secondary or higher education had just 1.2. This relationship may be linked to the opportunities available outside the home.
Vela adds, “Greater equality and access to the job market for women means the decision to have a second or third child competes with professional development.” However, this possibility coexists with the unequal distribution of domestic responsibilities. The 2024 National Time Use Survey shows a stark disparity: women dedicated an average of 39.7 hours per week to unpaid domestic work, compared to 18.2 hours for men.
Researches Mariana García Crisóstomo and Irékani Alarcón Acosta, from the Information Group on Chosen Reproduction (GIRE), refer to this accumulation of responsibilities as an “avalanche of care.” This term encapsulates the extensive tasks that women undertake once they become mothers, often viewed as a natural aspect of motherhood.
Revisiting Parenting Expectations and Costs
The financial implications of raising children extend beyond basic necessities like food, clothing, and education. Professor Vela posits that while some fundamental costs may be lower now than in previous decades, the expectations surrounding quality parenting have evolved considerably. “When you incorporate the element of quality in upbringing—not merely the basic needs but also optimal nutrition and educational support—you begin to encounter a range of costs,” he explains.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) finds similar trends in fertility across its member countries: the expectations of what it means to be a parent have risen, often requiring a more significant investment of time, money, and attention. The OECD notes that the time dedicated to parenting has particularly increased among more educated parents.
Time is another critical cost of parenting. Caring for a child involves attending to their health, supporting their education, and dedicating hours that could otherwise be spent on paid work or other activities. This dimension is especially pronounced as caregiving responsibilities predominantly fall to women.
Regional Trends in Birth Rates Across Latin America
Mexico’s experience is part of a broader trend unfolding across Latin America. The 2025 Demographic Observatory report from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) reveals that the region’s average fertility rate has decreased from 5.8 children per woman in 1950 to 1.8 in 2024. Vela explains that a rate of approximately 2.1 children per woman is necessary for stabilising population size over the long term, excluding migration, yet the region is already below this threshold.
When comparing this rapid decline with other economies, the difference in pace becomes clear. For instance, Spain’s fertility rate dropped from around 1.9 to approximately 1.2 in just over ten years, while South Korea took nearly two decades to achieve a similar decrease. Historically, very low fertility rates were associated with high-income countries with aging populations; however, the current situation in Latin America expands this narrative.
The decline in birth rates does not immediately result in a shrinking population, as earlier generations born in previous decades will continue to contribute to growth for some time. ECLAC projects that the regional population will peak around 2053 before beginning to decline.
The Political Implications of Falling Birth Rates
Recent statistics on fertility rates have prompted discussions within the Mexican government. President Claudia Sheinbaum emphasised the need to understand “exactly what is happening” among young people opting not to have children or to have only one.
Conversely, in Argentina, the conversation has taken a different turn. In August 2026, President Javier Milei linked the decline in birth rates to feminism’s push for legalising abortion, arguing that a smaller population could negatively impact economic growth and pension systems.
GIRE contends that attributing declining birth rates solely to feminism overlooks other contributing factors: “Blaming feminism for the drop in births simplifies a complex, multidimensional phenomenon and ignores the state’s responsibility to provide appropriate contexts for care and parenting.”
Addressing Demographic Changes with Caution
Vela urges caution regarding governmental responses to demographic trends. He recalls that decades ago, concerns centred on rapid population growth, leading various countries to implement policies aimed at curbing it. Now, as trends shift, attempts to reverse this without first understanding the underlying causes could lead to unintended consequences.
He cites China’s historical “one-child policy,” enacted from 1979 to 2015, as an example. “This policy became highly discriminatory against girls, as families favoured male children. It caused lasting damage to Chinese society and global fertility rates,” he elaborates.
Countries now seeking to boost birth rates have yet to discover a universal solution. OECD findings indicate that providing financial incentives to families often yields minimal or temporary effects on fertility. Measures such as improving access to housing and childcare, expanding parental leave, and facilitating work-life balance can influence outcomes, yet their effectiveness varies by nation.
Future Implications of Reduced Fertility in Mexico
While fewer births do not immediately shrink a population, they gradually alter its composition. As smaller generations are born and life expectancy increases, the proportion of older adults rises. The INEGI Intercensal Survey already indicates this trend: between 2020 and 2025, the median age of the Mexican population rose from 29 to 32 years.
This shift will become more pronounced over time. Based on United Nations projections, Vela notes that currently, there are between 11 and 13 individuals aged 65 and older for every 100 individuals aged 15 to 64. This ratio could increase to 26 per 100 within the next 25 years.
This demographic change will heighten the demand for pensions, healthcare, and caregiving services. However, Vela points out that the impact will also depend on the productivity levels of the working population. “The productivity level of a country significantly influences how it can respond to demographic changes,” he explains.
Moreover, the circumstances under which individuals reach older age will be crucial. Preventative measures addressing conditions such as diabetes and cardiovascular issues, along with promoting a healthy diet and physical activity, can help ensure that more individuals maintain their health and independence for longer.
An aging population will also create