El Niño: Un Fenómeno Meteorológico en Ascenso
In a recent update released midweek, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has forecasted a nearly 100% chance that the El Niño phenomenon will continue through February. The organisation has stated, “This is the first time an update regarding El Niño/La Niña has been so unequivocal,” highlighting that this certainty reflects “the strong consensus within the extensive WMO network.”
El Niño is a natural weather phenomenon characterised by above-average ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific, a pattern that disrupts weather systems globally. Since the start of the year, scientists have been warning about the imminent arrival of a particularly intense El Niño. The latest predictions suggest that this event could become the strongest on record, with significant deviations from past occurrences; its effects are already being felt worldwide and are expected to intensify in the coming months.
Rising Global Temperatures and Extreme Weather
“El Niño is intensifying before our very eyes. Science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are warming. Sea surface temperatures are rising, and we are on the brink of experiencing extreme weather events,” stated UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
In addition to influencing regional climates, El Niño typically raises the global average temperature by 0.1 to 0.2°C by releasing heat into the atmosphere. However, this year could witness an even more significant increase. The intensity of the current El Niño suggests that 2023 may become the hottest year on record; as the additional heat takes time to permeate the climate system, 2027 is anticipated to be even warmer.
This surge in temperatures serves as a stark warning, particularly when combined with human-induced warming. An independent UN report released this week cautioned that the world is likely to exceed a 1.5°C increase in temperature within the next few years.
Consequences of an Intensified El Niño
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist from the University of California’s College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, remarked, “The consequences of El Niño will be so vast that I am unsure we fully comprehend them.” The intensity of this phenomenon means it could lead to extreme and unexpected weather events, and he advises caution in making specific predictions about what will happen over the next year. Nevertheless, he asserts that the impacts will be substantial.
“This is likely to be one of the most significant climate events, apart from long-term warming, which is not an isolated phenomenon, as anyone alive will experience it. It is a serious matter that will have dramatic consequences,” he added.
Early Signs of Impact
Although El Niño will not reach its peak intensity for several months, the world has already begun to witness some of its effects: the United States has just endured its hottest summer on record, and it is highly probable that this heat has been exacerbated by El Niño. Regions typically dry during this phenomenon are also experiencing drought. In Sudan, low Nile water levels are worsening a food crisis that has persisted for years, while Puerto Rico has resorted to water rationing due to drought and infrastructure failures. The fishing industry in the eastern Pacific is also in turmoil due to warmer-than-usual waters in the area.
“Now the race is between increasing risks and our commitment to taking climate action and protecting people. We must win that race,” Guterres stated in his remarks.