Assessment of Global Temperature Rise by the UN Environment Programme
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has reached a concerning conclusion: the planet is on a trajectory to surpass the critical global warming threshold of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as outlined in the Paris Agreement. This alarming prediction could materialise before the end of this decade.
This forecast forms the crux of the latest report titled ‘Limiting Global Overheating’, which delves into the potential impacts and risks associated with the impending rise in global temperatures. It also highlights the urgent actions humanity must take in light of a future likely dominated by overheating.
The document acknowledges the strides made by the international community in addressing climate change but stresses that global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have not progressed swiftly enough to prevent surpassing the 1.5 °C threshold in the coming years.
UN’s Unprecedented Declaration on Climate Limits
This statement marks the first time a UN body has unequivocally asserted that the Earth will exceed the established climate limit, which serves as a benchmark to avert the most catastrophic and irreversible effects of climate change. Two years ago, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) noted that the average global temperature had, for the first time in a calendar year, exceeded the 1.5 °C threshold. However, this instance did not constitute a breach of the Paris Agreement, as the UN clarifies that a single month or year exceeding 1.5 °C does not signify an official failure of climate targets.
In contrast, UNEP’s new report suggests that global warming could persistently exceed this limit, a scenario that would indeed represent a failure to meet international climate objectives. Nevertheless, the organisation emphasises that this does not imply the target should be abandoned.
Understanding the Coming Climate Era
The analysis outlines that the world is nearing an era of overheating, which can be graphically represented as a curve termed the “overshoot trajectory”, comprising four stages:
- The exceeding of the established limit for global warming.
- A sustained peak temperature between 1.5 °C and 2 °C.
- A subsequent decline.
- A stabilisation phase.
Mirey Atallah, head of the UNEP’s Adaptation and Resilience Subdivision and the report’s coordinator, explains that this necessitates addressing the climate crisis within a context of temperatures exceeding 1.5 °C compared to pre-industrial levels, rather than striving to remain below this threshold as previously attempted.
“This serves as the starting point for comprehending the urgent need to drastically reduce emissions and mitigate the severity of the overshoot trajectory we currently face,” she clarifies.
Predictions and Required Actions for Temperature Control
The report posits that the world could experience a temperature increase of up to 1.8 °C compared to levels recorded prior to the Industrial Revolution throughout this century. This optimistic scenario would necessitate a 50% reduction in global pollutant emissions over the next decade, with a complete elimination by 2050. However, it also considers projections that exceed 2 °C.
“Beyond 1.5 °C, the risks and impacts will escalate with every fraction of a degree increase and with each passing year, leading to increasingly severe climatic repercussions,” warns the study.
Among the anticipated consequences are intensified extreme weather events and the loss of ecosystems, posing greater risks particularly to small island developing states and low-lying coastal cities. Additionally, widespread effects on human health, food security, access to water, biodiversity, urban areas, infrastructure, and economies are expected.
Urgent Call for Climate Action
António Guterres, the UN Secretary-General, remarked that this summer’s heatwaves, wildfires, and floods serve as a stark warning of what lies ahead. “We must ensure that the increase in temperature above 1.5 °C is kept as minimal and brief as possible. This demands unparalleled ambition,” he added.
In this context, the report advocates for rapid and decisive reductions in emissions, accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, and implementing more effective policies that ensure sufficient investment alongside equity and climate justice.
“Now is the time to intensify efforts on climate action. We can—and must—steer ourselves onto the right path by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, bolstering resilience and adaptation, and ensuring that the rise to 1.5 °C is kept to a minimum and as brief as possible,” reiterated Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP.