Significant Increase in Wildfire Activity in Iberia
The recent State of Wildfires report reveals alarming data regarding the wildfire situation in Iberia during 2025. It indicates that the extreme weather conditions that contributed to this unprecedented fire season were three times more likely due to climate change driven by human activities. The area affected by these fires was also three times larger than in previous years. Launched at the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, this report highlights that 2025 experienced the largest recorded area burned across the European Union, surpassing even the figures for 2026. The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) played a crucial role in providing data for this analysis.
The wildfire season was particularly catastrophic in Iberia, leading to the evacuation of over 40,000 individuals as multiple megafires swept through the region. Spain documented its highest level of burned area since 2002, while Portugal experienced its largest single wildfire on record. The report warns that if current trends continue, fires similar to those witnessed in Europe in 2025 could consume approximately one-third more land within the next two decades. However, it also suggests that significant reductions in emissions could mitigate the severity of such fires in the future.
The Global Context of Wildfire Trends
The report brings to light that climate change is not only increasing the frequency of severe wildfires but also intensifying their impact in numerous regions around the globe. Through case studies focusing on particularly destructive fires in Canada, Northwest Iberia, and Chile, the document illustrates the catastrophic consequences these events can have on communities and vital ecosystems alike. It is evident that while the situation is dire, a concerted effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can significantly influence the magnitude of these catastrophic events in the years to come.
The State of Wildfires 2025–2026 report is a collaborative effort involving scientists from various institutions, including the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Their combined expertise emphasizes the urgent need for action against climate change to avert more severe wildfire seasons in the future.
Understanding the Drivers of Extreme Fires
Researchers have identified two critical climate-related patterns that have contributed to the recent surge in extreme wildfires. The first is the prolonged drying period preceding extreme fire weather, which has led to exceptionally destructive fires in carbon-rich regions such as Canada, the Amazon, and the Congo Basin. Conversely, in areas like Northwest Iberia and Los Angeles, unusually wet conditions prior to rapid drying and extreme heat have created fertile ground for intense fires.
Dr Francesca Di Giuseppe from ECMWF has noted that enhanced vegetation growth following wet conditions, coupled with subsequent drought and heat, exacerbates fire risk. This phenomenon, termed hydroclimatic rebound, sets a dangerous precedent for severe fires. Chile has displayed a more complex pattern, with both vegetation conditions and drying contributing to fire risk, although prolonged drying was the primary factor in the fires that occurred in early 2026.
The Influence of Climate Change on Fire Severity
The research team employed a combination of satellite observations, vegetation cover assessments, and various models to evaluate climate change’s influence on fire risk during key wildfire episodes in 2025-26. Their findings indicate that climate change has significantly heightened both the likelihood and scale of major wildfire incidents.
In Canada, for instance, climate change has increased the likelihood of wildfires by a factor of ten, resulting in a ninefold increase in burned area. In Northwest Iberia, the area burned was approximately three times larger and more probable, while in Chile, the affected area was about twice as large. Dr Douglas Kelley from UKCEH highlights that the most extreme fire events are where the strongest signals of climate change can be discerned, suggesting that future wildfire seasons may not uniformly worsen but rather that the most devastating years will become increasingly severe.
Regional Impacts Amidst Global Trends
Despite the overall global fire season in 2025-2026 registering the lowest level of burned area and emissions since 2002, this figure obscures the severe regional extremes experienced in various parts of the world. Major wildfires in Canada, Northwest Iberia, and Chile/Argentina had profound effects on air quality, resulted in fatalities and mass evacuations, incurred significant economic costs, and threatened carbon-rich ecosystems.
Canada faced its third consecutive extreme wildfire season in July-August 2025, with fire emissions nearly tripling the average recorded from 2002 to 2024. Approximately 70,000 individuals were evacuated, and direct costs reached around USD 360 million. Climate change has been implicated in nearly doubling the likelihood of extreme fire weather in the region.
In Northwest Iberia, several of the largest fires on record occurred during an August 2025 episode, resulting in 14 fatalities and over 42,000 evacuations. The report indicates that climate change rendered extreme fire weather three times more likely during this period. Projections under high-emissions scenarios suggest that similar fires could burn significantly more area by the century’s end.
In Chile, fires in the temperate forests and matorral led to 23 deaths and displaced approximately 52,000 people. These fires reached significant ecological sites, including Los Alerces National Park, a UNESCO World Heritage Site. Climate change increased the likelihood of extreme fire weather during this episode by approximately 50%. Future projections indicate that under a high-emissions scenario, similar fires could consume around 34% more area by the end of the century.
Dr Matthew Jones from the University of East Anglia remarked on the paradox of 2025-26, highlighting that while it was a year of low global burned area, the occurrence of high-impact events has had devastating consequences for communities and has contributed to significant CO2 emissions that further accelerate climate change.